The model’s task
Find outcomes whose probability the market appears to have mispriced.
About the fund
Two views of one match.
Rosenberg Systems operates in sports markets. The fund built Tennis Quant Engine to estimate how likely each outcome is in a tennis match.
The model compares its estimate with the probability implied by the bookmaker’s odds. The fund uses that difference to select positions with positive expected value.
The analytical model
Tennis Quant Engine.
From player statistics to position selection
in four steps.
TQE / MATCH ANALYSIS01 / 04
Player and match data
TQE considers each player’s Elo rating, the court surface, recent form, serve and return performance, workload and match context.
The model weights player and match data to estimate the probability of each outcome under consideration.
TQE compares its estimate with the probability implied by market odds. The difference between the two is the edge.
The fund selects positions with positive expected value. Any single position can lose, so the fund evaluates performance across a series of positions.
The maths behind TQE
The edge
in numbers.
In the fund’s example, the model gives Novak Djokovic a 57% chance of beating Daniil Medvedev. The market offers decimal odds of 2.04.
Adjust the model’s probability to see how the edge and the expected return change.
Djokovic / MedvedevMatch example
Market-implied probability49.0%
35%75%
Probability edge+8.0 pp
Expected value · EV+16.3%
Calculation for one position at decimal odds of 2.04.
Capital at work
Investment
packages.
Select a term to compare the packages
in the fund’s presentation.
ROSENBERG SYSTEMS
Ace
21 days
+84%Per term
4%Per day
From $50 · Access to TQE forecasts · Counts towards partner rank
These figures are estimates from the fund’s presentation. Actual returns depend on the outcomes of the positions taken. Losses are possible.
How the investment cycle works
- Add funds
Add funds to your balance and choose a package.
- Activate the package
The investment cycle starts when the package is activated.
- Capital at work
Capital is allocated to positions selected by TQE.
- Close the cycle
At the end of the term, funds return to the balance with the result of the cycle reflected in the amount.
- Next cycle
Funds can be withdrawn or reinvested in a new cycle.
Partners
Partner
programme.
Partners earn a share of profits across three referral levels after each completed cycle.
Direct referrals10%
Second level4%
Third level1%
Partner ranks and rewards
| Rank | Level 1 | Level 2 | Level 3 | Reward |
|---|
Each rank is awarded once. The partner’s own Ace deposit must equal the reward for that rank. Moving up earns the difference between the two rewards.
Contact
Rosenberg Systems
on Telegram.
Explore the fund’s app and package terms,
or visit its official channel.